Oil Surge Dollar Fell, What Next?

04/23/2020 at 10:08AM

In the G10 FX Market, NOK and NZD are the top gainers today, up 1.06% and 0.35% versus the dollar while EUR and CHF are the top losers, down -0.25% and -0.24% versus the dollar, respectively.


The dollar fell versus the commodity currencies on Thursday as a surge in crude prices helped the markets shaken by a sharp drop in demand by coronavirus pandemic. In our view, this see-saw will continue amid the current uncertainty. As we have said before there are opportunities whenever the market goes to extremes, however, it is also very risky to engage in these opportunities.


In the rates market, global yields were trading weaker with the US 10-year yield down -0.4bp trading at 0.614 and the German 10-year yield trading lower by -0.4bp around -0.421. In the Asian Session, Equities markets were trading mixed with S&P 500 futures -0.16% at 2784.12, the Nikkei 1.43% at 19412.0, and the Hang Seng 0.0% at 23894.0. In the energy space, the Brent front month is trading up 7.22% for the day at $21.84.


10-year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)


Daily FX Pivots


Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)


(Content and Data by Tradermade)


Forex Chart and Technical Analysis


EURUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 1.0837 for 1.0755
Short-term view: EUR/USD resistance comes in at 1.0837 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.0755 enter at 1.081. Above 1.0837 to open 1.0872


GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Support at 1.2332 for 1.2389
Short-term view: GBP/USD support comes in at 1.2332 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see bounce to 1.2389 enter at 1.2351. Below 1.2332 to open 1.2278


USDJPY Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Support at 107.31 for 107.95
Short-term view: USD/JPY MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 107.31 and we see a dip to 107.95 enter at 107.52. Below 107.31 to open 107.1


AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Support at 0.6317 for 0.6357
Short-term view: AUDUSD support comes in at 0.6317 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see bounce to 0.6357 enter at 0.633. Below 0.6317 to open 0.6282