Brexit Deal or No Deal

Updated 09:23AM 18/10/2019

NZD and SEK are the top G10 FX gainers today, up 0.43% and 0.29% vs the dollar while NOK and JPY are the top losers, down -0.1% and -0.01% vs the dollar.The British Pound remained near recent highs ahead of the Saturday meeting of the Parliament where PM Boris Johnson's Brexit deal has the potential to pass given the close race. So far the estimates suggest that Johnson will lose by mere 2-5 votes. That said, the risk is still to the downside if the parliament fails to pass the current deal.


Chinese GDP disappointed but yuan was stable. The dollar index continued its slide as Brexit hopes lifted the euro. The market is now also expecting a Fed rate cut on the 30th of October and these considerations should drive the FX over the coming days. Elsewhere, NOK continued to hit new all-time lows with no obvious reasons to explain the move.


In the Asian equities space, the Nikkei 225 closed up 0.18% at 22,492.68, Hang Seng closed -0.48% at 26719.58 and Kospi ended -0.83% at 2060.69. The European equities were trading mixed with the FTSE -0.37% at 7155.55, DAX 0.1% at 12668.0, and CAC -0.36% at 5652.6. In the rates market, global yields were trading firmer; the US 10-year yield was trading at 1.7676% and the Bund 10-year yield trading at -0.384%. In the energy space, the Brent (front month) is trading down (-0.1%) for the day at $59.85.


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Major Currency Pairs


EURUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Support at 1.1097 for 1.1167
Short-term view: EUR/USD support at 1.1097, MACD and RSI are bulish. Hence, we see a move to 1.1167. Below 1.1097 to open 1.1050.


GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Support at 1.2850 for 1.3000
Short-term view: GBP/USD support at 1.2850, MACD and RSI are improving. We see risk of a bounce to 1.2961, likely 1.3060. Below 1.2850 to open 1.2750.


USDJPY Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 109.15 for 108.00
Short-term view: USD/JPY has resistance around 109.15, MACD and RSI are weak. Hence, we see a move lower to 108.43, likely 108.00. Above 109.15 opens 109.47.


AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 0.6869 for 0.6780
Short-term view: AUD/USD MACD and RSI are topping out and resistance at 0.6869 for a move lower towards 0.6780, likely 0.6740. Above 0.6869 to open 0.6920.

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