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Forex Outlook Ahead of FOMC

Updated 09:05AM 18/09/2019

USD and JPY are the top G10 FX gainers today while SEK and NOK are the top losers, down -0.48% and -0.42% vs the dollar.


The dollar remains firm ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting where expectations are of a 25bp interest rate cut. The focus will be on dot plots with any downward revision likely to cause a dip in the dollar.


Cable was rejected once again from near six-week highs (1.2528) as no-deal uncertainty remains. The investors will now focus on the Bank of England policy meeting where BoE is expected to keep rates at 0.75bp. That said, BoE is itself dependent on Brexit.


In the Asian equities space, the Nikkei 225 closed -0.18% lower at 21,960.71, Hang Seng closed -0.13% at 26754.12 and Kospi ended 0.41% at 2070.73. The European equities were trading firm with the FTSE up +0.31% at 7342.89, DAX up +0.14% at 12390.03, and CAC up +0.16% at 5624.48. In the rates market, global yields were trading weaker; the US 10-year yield was trading at 1.7769% and the Bund 10-year yield trading at -0.495%. In the energy space, the Brent (front month) is trading down (-0.19%) for the day at $64.43.


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Daily Pivots for Key Currency Pairs


Economic Calendar


10-year Yields Chart (6-month)


USD-Index Daily Chart (6-month)


Brent Front Month Daily Chart (6-month)


Trade Weighted Basket Hourly (two-week)


(Content and Data by Tradermade)


Major Currency Pairs


EURUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 1.1085 for 1.0975
Short-term view: EUR/USD resistance at 1.1085, MACD and RSI are weakening. Hence, we see a move to 1.0975, likely 1.0903. Above 1.1085 to open 1.1120


GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 1.2520 for 1.2381
Short-term view: GBP/USD resistance at 1.2520, MACD and RSI are weakening. We see risk of a dip to 1.2381, likely 1.2325. Above 1.2520 to open 1.2584


USDJPY Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 108.43 for 107.48
Short-term view: USD/JPY has resistance around 108.43, MACD and RSI are topping out, Hence, we see a move lower to 107.48, likely 107.05. Above 108.43 opens 108.81


AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 0.6920 for 0.6830
Short-term view: AUD/USD MACD and RSI are weakening, resistance at 0.6920 for a move lower towards 0.6830, likely 0.6780. Above 0.6920 we look for 0.6950 in the immediate short-term.