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Forex Outlook as Risk Appetite Wane

Created 10/16/2019 at 09:17AM

CHF and JPY are the top G10 FX gainers today, up 0.18% and 0.15% vs the dollar while NOK and GBP are the top losers, down -0.54% and -0.38% vs the dollar. The U.S dollar is headed for a 4-week low on worries that rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China will continue to weigh down on global growth. Risk appetite was lacking with the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc firming and AUD falling.


The British Pound fell from its 5-month highs as talks to secure a Brexit deal continue and are likely to go down to the very end. The volatility in Sterling is likely to remain high with any outcome to cause sharp moves.


In the Asian equities space, the Nikkei 225 closed up +1.20% at 22,472.92, Hang Seng closed 0.61% at 26664.28 and Kospi ended 0.71% at 2082.83. The European equities were trading weaker with the FTSE down -0.21% at 7196.82, DAX down -0.11% at 12615.95, and CAC down -0.3% at 5684.99. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed; the US 10-year yield was trading at 1.729% and the Bund 10-year yield trading at -0.421%. In the energy space, the Brent (front month) is trading down (-0.34%) for the day at $58.54.


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Daily Pivots for Key Currency Pairs


Economic Calendar


10-year Yields Chart (6-month)


Brent Front Month Daily Chart (6-month)


USD-Index Daily Chart (6-month)


Trade Weighted Basket Hourly (two-week)


(Content and Data by Tradermade)


Major Currency Pairs


EURUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 1.1061 for 1.1000
Short-term view: EUR/USD resistance at 1.1060, MACD and RSI are looking to move lower. Hence, we see a move to 1.1000, likely 1.0950. Above 1.1060 to open 1.1120.


GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 1.2802 for 1.2572
Short-term view: GBP/USD resistance at 1.2802, MACD and RSI are weak. We see risk of a dip to 1.2572. Above 1.2802 to open 1.2900.


USDJPY Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 109.15 for 108.00
Short-term view: USD/JPY has resistance around 109.15, MACD and RSI are topping out. Hence, we see a move lower to 108.00, likely 107.64. Above 109.15 opens 109.47.


AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 0.6774 for 0.6700
Short-term view: AUD/USD MACD and RSI are weak, resistance at 0.6774 for a move lower towards 0.6700, likely 0.6650. Above 0.6774 to open 0.6830.