No Deal Out Brexit In, Almost

Updated 09:10AM 21/10/2019

NZD and NOK are the top G10 FX gainers today, up 0.34% and 0.29% vs the dollar while JPY and CHF are the top losers, down -0.18% and -0.02% vs the dollar. Cable hit a 23-weak peak at 1.3011, Sterling is benefitting from reduced chances of a no-deal Brexit. Goldman Sachs sees the chances of a no-deal Brexit at 5%. In our view, any significant dip in sterling should be seen as an opportunity to go long given the chances of a no-deal scenario.


The U.S. Dollar fell further as the market anticipates a further Fed rate cut on 30th October. The chances of a rate cut currently stand at almost 90% and this should help the risky currencies such as AUD and NZD as there are reduced chances of further easing from RBA and RBNZ over the coming weeks.


In the Asian equities space, the Nikkei 225 closed up 0.25% at 22,548.90, Hang Seng closed 0.02% at 26725.68 and Kospi ended 0.2% at 2064.84. The European equities were trading mixed with the FTSE -0.03% at 7148.5, DAX 0.55% at 12703.25, and CAC 0.02% at 5637.4. In the rates market, global yields were trading firmer; the US 10-year yield was trading at 1.7887% and the Bund 10-year yield trading at -0.339%. In the energy space, the Brent (front month) is trading down (-0.5%) for the day at $59.12.


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Major Currency Pairs


EURUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Support at 1.1136 for 1.1234
Short-term view: EUR/USD support at 1.1136, MACD and RSI are bulish. Hence, we see a move to 1.1234. Below 1.1136 to open 1.1097.


GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Support at 1.2900 for 1.3150
Short-term view: GBP/USD support at 1.2900, MACD and RSI are improving. We see risk of a bounce to 1.3060, likely 1.3150. Below 1.2900 to open 1.2850.


USDJPY Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 108.81 for 108.01
Short-term view: USD/JPY has resistance around 108.81, MACD and RSI are weak. Hence, we see a move lower to 108.01. Above 108.81 opens 109.15.


AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Support at 0.6841 for 0.6920
Short-term view: AUD/USD MACD and RSI are improving and support at 0.6841 for a move towards 0.6920. Below 0.6841 to open 0.6780.

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