Trade Deal, Brexit, and Forex Outlook 1

Updated 09:25AM 14/10/2019

JPY and CHF are the top G10 FX gainers today, up 0.15% and 0.06% vs the dollar while NZD and GBP are the top losers, down -0.62% and -0.55% vs the dollar. The U.S. and Japan are closed for the holiday. USD was back and forth as investors made sense of the intial agreement in the U.S.-China trade deal. The market was not assured because the initial agreement lacked any detail.


The British Pound fell as it became apparent that the EU and U.K. will have more Brexit talks before an agreement.


In the Asian equities space, Hang Seng closed 0.81% at 26521.85 and Kospi ended 1.11% at 2067.4. The European equities were trading weaker with the FTSE down -0.31% at 7224.66, DAX down -0.42% at 12459.51, and CAC down -0.54% at 5635.02. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed; the Bund 10-year yield trading at -0.462%. In the energy space, the Brent (front month) is trading down (-0.78%) for the day at $60.04.


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Major Currency Pairs


EURUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 1.1061 for 1.0950
Short-term view: EUR/USD resistance at 1.1060, MACD and RSI are looking to move lower. Hence, we see a move to 1.0950. Above 1.1060 to open 1.1120.


GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 1.2650 for 1.2505
Short-term view: GBP/USD resistance at 1.2650 MACD and RSI are topping out. We see risk of a dip to 1.2505, likely 1.2450. Above 1.2650 to open 1.2700.


USDJPY Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 108.43 for 107.20
Short-term view: USD/JPY has resistance around 108.43, MACD and RSI are topping out. Hence, we see a move lower to 107.64, likely 107.20. Above 108.43 opens 108.81.


AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 0.6800 for 0.6700
Short-term view: AUD/USD MACD and RSI lacks upside momentum, resistance at 0.6800 for a move lower towards 0.6740, likely 0.6700. Above 0.6800 we look for 0.6881.


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