Title - U.S. Dollar Outlook as Trade War See-Saw Continue

Created 09/26/2019 at 09:17AM


NZD and JPY are the top G10 FX gainers today, up 0.35% and 0.13% vs the dollar while GBP and CHF are the top losers, down -0.17% and -0.17% vs the dollar.

 

Risk sentiments improved after U.S. President Trump said a trade deal could happen sooner than expected and that China is making big agricultural purchases from the U.S. That said, the risky assets are still vulnerable amid an uncertain global outlook and we expect the dollar to keep firm heading into the weekend.

 

Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr said "our current view is that we are unlikely to need unconventional monetary policy tools. But we would be remiss not to be prepared". In our view, NZDUSD upside should be limited given uncertain global outlook, that said, an upside versus the Aussie may continue.

 

In the Asian equities space, the Nikkei 225 closed up 0.13% at 22,048.24, Hang Seng closed 0.37% at 26041.93 and Kospi ended 0.05% at 2074.52. The European equities were trading firm with the FTSE up +0.8% at 7348.52, DAX up +0.44% at 12287.82, and CAC up +0.7% at 5623.01. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed; the US 10-year yield was trading at 1.7043% and the Bund 10-year yield trading at -0.576%. In the energy space, the Brent (front month) is trading down (-0.08%) for the day at $62.34.

 

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Daily Pivots for Key Currency Pairs

 
 

Economic Calendar

 
 

10-year Yields Chart (6-month)

 
 

USD-Index Daily Chart (6-month)

 
 

Brent Front Month Daily Chart (6-month)

 
 

Trade Weighted Basket Hourly (two-week)

 
 

(Content and Data by Tradermade)

 

Major Currency Pairs

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.0985 for 1.0840
Short-term view: EUR/USD resistance at 1.0985, MACD and RSI are weakening. Hence, we see a move to 1.0903, likely 1.0840. Above 1.0985 to open 1.1025.

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.2381 for 1.2265
Short-term view: GBP/USD resistance at 1.2381, MACD and RSI are weakening. We see risk of a dip to 1.2325, likely 1.2265. Above 1.2381 to open 1.2433.

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 108.01 for 107.48
Short-term view: USD/JPY has resistance around 108.01, MACD and RSI are mixed. Hence, we see a move lower to 107.48, likely 107.05. Above 108.01 opens 108.43.

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.6800 for 0.6725
Short-term view: AUD/USD MACD and RSI are weakening, resistance at 0.6800 for a move lower towards 0.6725, likely 0.6650. Above 0.6800 we look for 0.6830.