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UK-Ireland Meet, Trade Talks, and Forex Outlook

Updated 09:20AM 10/10/2019

SEK and NZD are the top G10 FX gainers today, up 0.9% and 0.49% vs the dollar while USD and JPY are the top losers. British Pound fell to a month low versus the euro with uncertainty on Brexit still high just three weeks before the U.K is due to leave the EU. The focus remains on PM Johnson's meeting with Irish PM Leo Varadkar where attempts will be made to get the Irish Premier on board with the British proposal for Brexit. In our view, any positive news on this front will be positive Sterling, that said, it seems unlikely that any resolution will be reached ahead of the 19 October deadline.


The U.S. dollar weakened once again as hopes of a trade deal between China and the United States kept investors on hold. In the Asian equities, the Nikkei 225 closed up 0.45% at 21,551.98, Hang Seng closed 0.1% at 25707.93 and Kospi ended -0.88% at 2028.15. The European equities were trading mixed with the FTSE -0.05% at 7163.01, DAX 0.19% at 12117.73, and CAC 0.4% at 5521.35.


In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed; the US 10-year yield was trading at 1.5768% and the Bund 10-year yield trading at -0.543%. In the energy space, the Brent (front month) is trading up (0.1%) for the day at $58.38.


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Trade Weighted Basket Hourly (two-week)


(Content and Data by Tradermade)


Major Currency Pairs


EURUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 1.1025 for 1.0950
Short-term view: EUR/USD resistance at 1.1025, MACD and RSI lacks upside momentum. Hence, we see a move to 1.0950. Above 1.1025 to open 1.1085.


GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 1.2265 for 1.2169
Short-term view: GBP/USD resistance at 1.2265, MACD and RSI are weakening. We see risk of a dip to 1.2169. Above 1.2265 to open 1.2325.


USDJPY Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 107.64 for 106.80
Short-term view: USD/JPY has resistance around 107.64, MACD and RSI are topping out. Hence, we see a move lower to 106.80, likely 106.40. Above 107.64 opens 108.01.


AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)


Strategy: Resistance at 0.6781 for 0.6700
Short-term view: AUD/USD MACD and RSI are weakening, resistance at 0.6780 for a move lower towards 0.6700, likely 0.6650. Above 0.6781 we look for 0.6830.